| dc.description.abstract | In an age of a flourishing emphasis on sports and a high frequency
of individual record breaking, a detailed description of performance
trends would provide a better understanding of what might happen in
the future. In this study, world records in swimming and athletics
were analyzed to relate the time of occurrence to their magnitude in
order to predict future record performances. Records were considered
from 1945, or the earliest date after 1945, to 1977 and subjected to a
time-series analysis (Box-Jenkins method) to determine predicted values
for 1978 through 1984. Predictions and their confidence limits were
developed for all events. A 5% error rate was considered as the widest
acceptable degree of error. Only some track events fell within this
criterion range and therefore, contained adequate predictions. Swimming
and field events were mainly unacceptable in light of the predictions which were made. Several variables affecting predictions were
discussed. Otherwise the prediction of world record performance trends
in swimming, track, and field was found to be unsatisfactory when world
records served as source data. | |
