Comparative analysis of alternative models of moose habitat carrying capacity

Abstract

The focus of the project was to compare the performance of several alternative models in predicting the potential impacts of timber harvesting on a moose population northwest of Edmonton, Alberta, in terms of moose density. The results would be used in strategic forest management planning for the area under study. Four models that estimate density were compared and contrasted for their suitability in prediction of timber harvesting impacts on the moose population. The final model results were compared to known moose population values from the area as a validation technique. Two of the models tested were habitat suitability index models, another was a habitat carrying capacity model, and the fourth was a population energetics model. The four models were applied to a 10,495 ha study area where timber harvest was simulated using Harvest Schedule Generator 3.0 over a 200-year time period. Three timber harvesting simulations were applied to the landscape using a philosophy of long-run sustained timber yield . A basic harvest level was developed to represent the way the present forest grows using normal timber yield curves. The second simulation represents a higher long-run sustained timber yield gained through intensive silviculture. The last simulation was designed to act as a control and it simulated the forest growth and development when no timber harvest takes place.