Integrated resource management plan combining STELLA and Goal Programming models

Abstract

The primary objective of this study was to develop mathematical models with existing computer programs and to use these models to assist in providing useful information for multiple use planning. Two different models were used: 1) a system dynamic model (STELLA) and 2) Goal programming (GP). These two types of the models were combined to complement each other. Timber, wildlife (represented by moose), and forest aesthetics were selected as the three variables in this study. The modelling approaches of the two models were discussed. The STELLA model was developed based on past experience and knowledge, while the GP model was formulated based on the simulation results of the STELLA model. Gross merchantable timber and the dry weight of browse were used as goals in the GP model. Area constraints in the sensitive area (SA) zone were used to indicate aesthetic potential. The use of the two models was illustrated with a case study area, which is located in management unit 030 of Abitibi-Spruce River Forest, Northwestern Ontario. A thirty-year planning horizon and three management alternatives were employed. The results show that the STELLA model can help the forest manager to better his understandings of forest dynamic behaviour, and the solution of the GP model was improved by the reasonable goal levels set by using the simulation results from the STELLA model. As a result, the combination of two models made the integrated resource management planning more suitable and practical.