The prediction and intervention of criminal behavior: a comparison of actuarial and case study methods

Abstract

Conceptual differences between actuarial and case study prediction, and past empirical comparisons of predictive powers are reviewed. The major concern is with providing empirical comparisons of accuracy in predicting criminal behavior. Specifically, the criterion to be predicted is parole outcome (i.e., parole violation and subsequent reincarceration or successful termination of parole).