Young offender recidivism over a 28-month follow-up period

Abstract

This follow-up study investigated 81 former young offenders of the Thunder Bay Youth Centre to determine the rate of recidivism and to evaluate predictor variables. Correctional records were used and both a liberal and conservative definition of recidivism included in this study. Over a mean follow-up period of 28 months, there was a 58% reconviction rate under the Criminal Code of Canada and/or the Provincial Offenses Act. The rate dropped slightly to 54.3% if only Criminal Code offenses were considered. Existing psychological test data and variables described as static and dynamic predictors were investigated to determine their relationship with recidivism. Partial correlation and multiple regression techniques were used to reveal that supervisor ratings of the likelihood of further criminal activity and aggregate sentence were statistically significant predictors of recidivism. However, these predictors collectively contributed in a relatively small way to the overall prediction of recidivism accounting for approximately 15-16% of recidivism variability. Results of this study are discussed along with limitations and suggestions for future research.