Impacts of climate change on the Monarch butterfly in Ontario; a citizen science-based approach

Abstract

The Monarch butterfly [Danaus plexippus (Linnaeus, 1758)], is an iconic insect native to North America. This butterfly is a migratory insect that flies to an overwintering site in Mexico every year. It is considered an endangered species in Canada due to habitat fragmentation and changing temperatures. This study utilized the maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) in conjunction with a research grade iNaturalist citizen science occurrence data and a Government of Canada climate dataset (CanDCS-U6) to display how the range of the Monarch butterfly will be impacted from climate change in Canada. In addition to the historic conditions the mid-century (2030-2050) and late-century (2080-2100) climate change scenarios utilized SSP 126, SSP 245 and SSP 585 emissions scenarios to create the species distribution models. The results showed that under these climate change scenarios there was northeastwards shift of suitable habitats for the Monarch butterfly. This can have an impact on future Monarch habitat affecting their migration and breeding grounds.