Effects of forest fires on timber harvest levels

Abstract

Traditional approaches to timber management planning do not address the realities of catastrophic wildfire. The model FORMAN is one of the operational wood supply models used in Ontario for forest regulation. The FORTRAN program FORMANB.FOR, presented here, incorporates the subprogram BURN.FOR, that models continuous wildfire according to historical patterns. Incorporating the risk of forest fire on the Nakina Forest lowered the sustainable harvest level from 520,000 m3/year to 473,500 m3/year (9%). When choosing the sustainable harvest level in light of this, the forest manager must evaluate options within a larger timber supply context. The ability to consider risk of fire explicitly as part a wood supply analysis should increase the forest manager's confidence in long-term timber supply projections and short-term harvest levels.