Impacts of projected future temperature rise on the hydrology of Neebing River, Ontario

Abstract

The projected future temperature rise is likely to change the Neebing River's hydrology over the following decades. The changing hydrological patterns are expected to cause increased hydrological extremes in the City of Thunder Bay, Ontario. To safeguard this city from future climatic extremes, it is necessary to understand the Neebing River's hydrological response to anticipated future temperature rise and consider efficient prevention and long-term adaptation techniques. This study investigates the potential impacts of projected future temperature rise on the hydrology of the Neebing River Watershed and identifies potential mitigation and adaptation strategies. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used to simulate the future streamflow for the period of 2041-2060 (near future), 2061-2080 (intermediate future), and 2081- 2100 (distant future). The future air temperature and precipitation projections have been derived from three Global Climate Models (CanESM5, GFDL-ESM4, and INM-CM4-8) under medium (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios. The SWAT model results reveal that compared to the baseline period of 2004-2023, the streamflow will increase significantly during the three future periods. There will be an increase in the winter, spring, and fall streamflow while a decrease in the summer streamflow. The results also suggest an increased intensity of future streamflow events. The findings of this study are expected to guide policy decisions intended to minimize damages from the unavoidable impacts of the projected future temperature rise. This study will also contribute to our understanding of the climate response of rivers in the Lake Superior basin and Northern Ontario in general.